Friday, October 30, 2015

Federal election results for Toronto and the GTA

[via CTV News]

In the Oct. 19 election, the Liberals won a majority government.  Every single seat in the city of Toronto went to the Liberals.  This is up from just five in the 2011 election, where the Liberals suffered a disastrous defeat and the NDP and Conservatives each won eight seats.  In this election, every Conservative and NDP MP went down to defeat.  The most high profile Tory MP to go down Finance Minister Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence.  The NDP, for the first time in over a decade, has no seats in Toronto.  NDP MPs Peggy Nash, Andrew Cash and Craig Scott, representing the ridings of Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Toronto-Danforth, respectively, all received more than 40% of the vote but all came short of around 1,000 votes from winning.  And in the much watched-race in Spadina-Fort York, former MP and mayoral candidate Olivia Chow was easily defeated by Adam Vaughan. 

The popular vote in the City of Toronto was as follows:

Liberals  644,768  52.7%
Conservatives  331,728  27.1%
NDP  230,078  18.8%

The Liberal share of the vote was about the same in both inner and outer Toronto.  The NDP received about 1/3 of the vote in the former and the Tories about 1/3 in the latter, but nowhere were their votes sufficiently concentrated to win a seat.

Elections Canada has results for "major centers."  The Liberals again dominated the Greater Toronto Area, winning 46 of the area's 52 seats.  The Conservatives won the remaining six seats in the 905 region; the NDP was not a factor in this area.

The popular vote in the GTA was:

Liberals  1,318,120  49.9%
Conservatives  887,206  33.6%
NDP  359,418  13.6%

Quite the change from 2011!

Monday, October 12, 2015

What were the best polls for the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals in Toronto?

[source =]

As we're a week from the next federal election, here's an election-themed post.  In what polls (what Americans refer to as precincts) did the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals have their best showing?

The Conservatives polled best in more affluent, suburban districts.  Their best poll was #100 in the riding of Eglinton-Lawrence.

In this poll, located around Caribou Rd. east of Bathurst St. and south of Lawrence Ave., the Conservatives received a whopping 87.5% of the vote.  This poll is populated almost entirely by Orthodox Jews, and the Conservatives received nearly all the votes in this community.

The NDP's area of strength was in the city core, though the "orange wave" had spread outward to the working class suburbs of York-Weston and Scarborough.  The party' best poll, by far, was poll #181 in the riding of Trinity-Spadina, where the NDP received 84.5% of the vote.

This poll constitutes the Toronto Islands, an area known for its left-wing and environmental outlook.   Under redistribution that went into effect in this election, the riding of Trinity-Spadina was abolished and this poll went to the riding of Spadina-Fort York.

The Liberals, meanwhile, who in a stunning upset were reduced to third place, had less concentrated support (resulting in just 5 MPs being elected in Toronto, a long-time stronghold!), with clusters in certain affluent "uptown" districts, in parts of Scarborough and in the city's northwest.  The best poll for the Liberals was poll #13, located in the northwestern riding of York West, where the Liberals received 72.1% of the vote:

Not bad given that the Liberals received just 19% nationally.  This is a predominantly Italian area, and they voted very differently from their counterparts in Vaughan where the Conservatives won in a landslide.

So to sum up the best poll for each party was:

Conservatives  Eglinton-Lawrence #100 (Caribou Rd.)  87.5%
NDP  Trinity-Spadina  #181 (Toronto Islands) 84.5%
Liberals  York West  #13 (Rowntree Mills) 72.1%